Polo’s Baja forecast has changed: a hurricane watch precedes Monday’s approach
As of 09:00 UTC on September 26, the forecast has changed. The National Hurricane Center's latest full advisory says Hurricane Polo is expected to approach Baja California Sur on Monday and make landfall there as a powerful hurricane. A hurricane watch covers the coast from Punta Eugenia to Santa Fe. The watch means hurricane conditions are possible, generally within 48 hours of the first tropical-storm-force winds; it is not a claim that landfall at any one town is certain.
Polo was a Category 5 hurricane with maximum sustained winds near 165 mph at the advisory time, about 375 miles south of Cabo San Lucas. Forecasters expect it to weaken as it nears the peninsula, but the forecast discussion still anticipates a powerful hurricane at the coast. Its present Category 5 strength is not a forecast of Category 5 landfall.
This is a material change from an earlier Baja California Sur state notice, which described a then-expected offshore track without landfall. That older assessment should not be read as current reassurance. More recent state notices describe response crews moving toward Los Cabos and Comondú and medical staff assigned to temporary shelters. Those are preparations, not reports that the storm has already made landfall.
What the watch covers
The hurricane center says tropical-storm conditions could begin in the southern part of the watch area Sunday night or early Monday and spread north on Monday. Hurricane conditions are possible by Monday afternoon. Its forecast calls for 4 to 8 inches of rain in parts of Baja California Sur, with local maxima of 10 inches; flooding and mudslides could be life-threatening on steep terrain. It also warns of possible coastal flooding from storm surge and dangerous surf and rip currents along western Mexico and Baja California. Rainfall totals, timing, and the eventual track can change.
For decisions about travel, shelter, or evacuation, check the latest hurricane advisories, Mexico's national weather service, and Baja California Sur's official shelter and emergency page. Follow instructions from local civil protection authorities. This report describes the 09:00 UTC advisory; the hurricane center scheduled an intermediate update for 12:00 UTC and its next full advisory for 15:00 UTC.