Nolo’s center is forecast offshore; Hawaiʻi’s flood risk is not
As of 09:00 UTC on September 26: The Central Pacific Hurricane Center’s advisory expected the center of Hurricane Nolo to remain well south and southwest of the main Hawaiian Islands. That forecast did not mean the islands were clear of danger. The same advisory kept a tropical-storm warning and hurricane watch for Hawaiʻi County, a tropical-storm watch for Maui County, and warned of potentially life-threatening flooding and mudslides.
Nolo was nearly stationary about 145 miles south of South Point at the advisory time, with maximum sustained winds near 105 mph. Forecasters expected a westward motion on Saturday and Sunday, but emphasized that the center’s projected path was only one part of the hazard. Tropical-storm conditions were already occurring in parts of the warning area on steep terrain, according to the advisory. Strong winds, large surf and heavy rain can reach land without the storm’s center crossing it.
Rain and local conditions
The hurricane center forecast 8 to 12 inches of rain for eastern and southern parts of Hawaiʻi Island, with isolated totals up to 16 inches. It also forecast 4 to 6 inches for eastern Maui, with isolated totals up to 8 inches. Those were forecasts issued at 09:00 UTC, not measured totals or guarantees for a specific location.
A separate flood watch from the National Weather Service in Honolulu, issued at 4:53 p.m. Hawaiʻi time on September 25, covered Hawaiʻi Island, Maui, Lānaʻi, Molokaʻi and Kahoʻolawe through Saturday afternoon. It identified windward and southeast Hawaiʻi Island and windward Maui as most exposed to heavy rain, while warning that streams, roads and steep slopes could be affected elsewhere. A flood watch means flooding is possible; it is not a report that every covered area is flooding.
The risk has already changed public access. The Hawaiʻi Department of Land and Natural Resources announced closures of state parks, camping areas, forest reserves and trails on Hawaiʻi Island beginning September 24, and on Maui and Molokaʻi beginning September 25. It said reopening would follow damage assessments and directed readers to its current parks notices for updates. Those dated closure announcements should not be taken as a live list of open sites.
Check the current warning before acting
The storm’s position, rainfall forecast and watches can change after this article. For current decisions, use the latest hurricane advisories, NWS Honolulu warnings, and Hawaiʻi’s emergency information, including any instructions from local authorities. The distinction in the September 26 advisory remains important: an offshore forecast track does not, by itself, rule out dangerous effects on land.