Arizona can catch Philadelphia without finishing ahead in wins

Arizona does not have to finish with more wins than Philadelphia to take the last National League Wild Card. Before Saturday's games, MLB's standings data showed the Phillies at 87–73 and the Diamondbacks at 86–74. Each club has two games scheduled through Sunday. Arizona is one game back, but it owns the relevant two-team tiebreaker if their final records match.

That creates two routes for Arizona:

• Win both remaining games: Arizona finishes 88–74 and qualifies if Philadelphia wins no more than one. A Phillies split would produce a tie; two Phillies losses would leave Arizona ahead outright.
• Win one of two: Arizona finishes 87–75 and qualifies only if Philadelphia loses both, producing another tie.

If Arizona loses both, it cannot catch Philadelphia. If Philadelphia wins both, Arizona cannot catch it. A Philadelphia win combined with an Arizona loss on Saturday would also decide the berth before Sunday's games: the two-game gap would exceed Arizona's one remaining opportunity.

Why a tie matters

MLB's postseason rules resolve equal records without an extra tiebreaker game. Arizona and Philadelphia split their six meetings. Arizona's better record against its own division is the next applicable measure, according to MLB's explanation of the possible Wild Card ties. That source also examines a possible three-team tie with the Cubs at 88–74 and places Arizona in the postseason in that scenario. This is a statement about the published rules and current records, not a prediction of either team's results.

The Phillies finish at home against Tampa Bay; the Diamondbacks finish in San Diego. The games are scheduled, not completed. Scores, postponements, and any official ruling could change the paths above. Check MLB's live standings and the linked schedules after each game; this report uses the records available before Saturday play on September 26.